Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Federal Civilian Employment Growth
Across Texas Counties
Federal Civilian
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Federal Civilian
Employment Growth
Texas:
2010-2022 = 0.55%
2022 = -0.45%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of federal civilian employment growth across all of Texas' 254 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Texas Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the federal civilian employment growth of Texas' 254 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Federal Civilian
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Federal Civilian
Employment Growth
Texas:
2010-2022 = 0.55%
2022 = -0.45%
This figure displays the 254 counties of Texas as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the federal civilian employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term federal civilian employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.55%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.55% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.55%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 75 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 179 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 164 counties whose most recent (2022) federal civilian employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.45%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 90 counties whose federal civilian employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 254 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.55% over 2010-2022 and -0.45% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual federal civilian employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.55%) and near-term (-0.45%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.55%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Texas average (-0.45%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.55%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-0.45%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual federal civilian employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.55%) and near-term (-0.45%).
   
 
Summary of Texas' 254 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-0.45%)
Above
(-0.45%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.55%)
17
58
75
Below
(0.55%)
73
106
179
 
90
164
254
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Texas:
2010-2022 = 0.55%
2022 = -0.45%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Texas counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Texas' average annual federal civilian employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.55%) as well as near-term (2022 = -0.45%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Texas' 254 counties, 58 (23%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Texas:
2010-2022 = 0.55%
2022 = -0.45%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 17 Texas counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.55%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = -0.45%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 17 (7%) of Texas' 254 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Texas:
2010-2022 = 0.55%
2022 = -0.45%
This figure shows the distribution of the 106 Texas counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.55%), while they outpaced Texas' average near-term (2022 = -0.45%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Texas' 254 counties, 42% (106) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Texas:
2010-2022 = 0.55%
2022 = -0.45%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 73 Texas counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual federal civilian employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.55%) as well as near-term (2022 = -0.45%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
29% of Texas' counties, 73 of 254, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Texas
Federal Civilian Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
44
1.52
 
33
7.02
61
 
54
1.19
 
160
-0.11
36,809
 
51
1.28
 
109
0.00
2
 
48
1.38
 
75
2.42
593
 
10
4.20
 
80
2.23
458
 
30
2.14
 
109
0.00
65
 
11
3.77
 
85
1.85
2,258
 
12
3.60
 
27
8.20
264
 
70
0.65
 
109
0.00
89
 
34
1.99
 
5
25.00
75
 
18
3.16
 
34
6.99
2,602
 
35
1.97
 
92
1.46
208
 
46
1.41
 
86
1.80
283
 
64
0.89
 
164
-0.37
13,045
 
42
1.63
 
31
7.50
43
 
24
2.46
 
62
3.50
1,183
 
72
0.61
 
79
2.24
365
 
25
2.38
 
107
0.28
356
 
39
1.91
 
89
1.75
58
 
38
1.91
 
35
6.67
256
 
71
0.62
 
63
3.45
30
 
69
0.67
 
71
2.55
27,594
 
29
2.15
 
109
0.00
11
 
74
0.59
 
109
0.00
97
 
15
3.41
 
105
0.36
5,026
 
57
1.16
 
55
4.42
118
 
61
1.00
 
161
-0.19
1,057
 
68
0.73
 
104
0.38
266
 
75
0.57
 
109
0.00
34
 
20
2.98
 
23
9.48
358
 
40
1.75
 
18
10.36
245
 
4
8.26
 
22
9.86
156
 
63
0.93
 
68
2.92
141
 
36
1.94
 
32
7.41
29
 
67
0.76
 
69
2.82
1,456
 
65
0.83
 
61
3.50
1,005
 
55
1.19
 
109
0.00
66
 
9
4.34
 
48
5.25
1,323
 
56
1.18
 
89
1.75
116
 
28
2.17
 
13
12.44
244
 
45
1.51
 
73
2.47
83
 
62
0.95
 
28
7.99
365
 
5
7.86
 
98
0.98
206
 
49
1.34
 
109
0.00
6
 
17
3.17
 
38
6.25
153
 
73
0.60
 
42
5.56
19
 
21
2.97
 
109
0.00
27
 
60
1.01
 
3
33.33
12
 
23
2.81
 
103
0.60
843
 
7
6.15
 
109
0.00
5
 
43
1.58
 
109
0.00
6
 
53
1.21
 
49
5.13
41
 
13
3.59
 
9
16.67
7
 
66
0.79
 
99
0.91
2,430
 
33
2.03
 
101
0.71
3,980
 
2
17.71
 
35
6.67
32
 
52
1.26
 
109
0.00
9
 
41
1.67
 
54
4.48
140
Slipping Counties
 
47
1.40
 
185
-2.61
149
 
8
5.27
 
246
-10.81
33
 
3
12.70
 
235
-7.32
76
 
19
3.05
 
182
-2.39
3,997
 
14
3.51
 
172
-1.54
64
 
58
1.10
 
180
-2.35
83
 
22
2.95
 
212
-4.81
713
 
1
26.03
 
184
-2.60
187
 
16
3.21
 
171
-1.44
274
 
6
7.27
 
239
-7.87
82
 
37
1.92
 
224
-5.71
33
 
50
1.29
 
197
-3.45
28
 
26
2.36
 
202
-3.85
50
 
32
2.06
 
229
-6.67
14
 
59
1.04
 
167
-0.82
16,150
 
31
2.13
 
211
-4.77
12,465
 
27
2.33
 
222
-5.56
85
Gaining Counties
 
77
0.53
 
109
0.00
16
 
228
-2.25
 
3
33.33
4
 
159
-0.70
 
56
4.17
25
 
141
-0.43
 
109
0.00
15
 
101
0.01
 
42
5.56
19
 
202
-1.50
 
109
0.00
34
 
94
0.11
 
82
2.05
298
 
239
-2.60
 
109
0.00
10
 
167
-0.82
 
109
0.00
113
 
154
-0.66
 
67
2.94
35
 
114
-0.08
 
76
2.33
44
 
98
0.03
 
9
16.67
14
 
234
-2.45
 
51
5.00
21
 
210
-1.71
 
53
4.76
22
 
218
-1.99
 
7
18.18
13
 
186
-1.23
 
70
2.70
38
 
136
-0.36
 
81
2.13
48
 
249
-4.82
 
109
0.00
14
 
85
0.25
 
39
5.88
72
 
227
-2.16
 
15
11.11
10
 
112
-0.06
 
109
0.00
5
 
128
-0.26
 
1
50.00
3
 
153
-0.63
 
42
5.56
19
 
174
-1.00
 
109
0.00
17
 
76
0.53
 
52
4.91
278
 
224
-2.07
 
19
10.00
11
 
171
-0.92
 
26
8.73
137
 
147
-0.49
 
109
0.00
52
 
204
-1.53
 
46
5.26
20
 
237
-2.59
 
109
0.00
15
 
193
-1.32
 
1
50.00
6
 
142
-0.44
 
41
5.59
1,058
 
88
0.19
 
29
7.69
14
 
189
-1.29
 
109
0.00
52
 
161
-0.72
 
109
0.00
6
 
241
-2.79
 
109
0.00
37
 
246
-3.63
 
109
0.00
73
 
232
-2.42
 
42
5.56
19
 
220
-2.04
 
57
4.00
26
 
178
-1.08
 
29
7.69
42
 
155
-0.66
 
93
1.39
73
 
172
-0.93
 
109
0.00
78
 
113
-0.07
 
163
-0.30
332
 
180
-1.10
 
91
1.52
67
 
103
0.00
 
109
0.00
3
 
83
0.33
 
59
3.66
85
 
192
-1.32
 
46
5.26
20
 
151
-0.62
 
95
1.23
247
 
95
0.07
 
109
0.00
87
 
205
-1.55
 
65
3.17
65
 
252
-6.41
 
109
0.00
1
 
245
-3.30
 
109
0.00
6
 
164
-0.76
 
109
0.00
14
 
102
0.00
 
109
0.00
2
 
115
-0.10
 
102
0.70
143
 
134
-0.32
 
96
1.19
852
 
120
-0.18
 
109
0.00
39
 
97
0.04
 
24
9.30
47
 
195
-1.35
 
109
0.00
25
 
139
-0.41
 
78
2.27
45
 
166
-0.80
 
76
2.33
44
 
107
-0.03
 
72
2.52
285
 
254
-7.69
 
109
0.00
0
 
104
-0.01
 
84
1.86
2,854
 
177
-1.03
 
109
0.00
3
 
92
0.14
 
19
10.00
22
 
110
-0.04
 
109
0.00
16
 
123
-0.22
 
64
3.38
612
 
99
0.03
 
87
1.79
57
 
190
-1.30
 
12
13.33
17
 
135
-0.33
 
83
1.89
54
 
243
-2.94
 
109
0.00
8
 
130
-0.27
 
66
3.16
98
 
198
-1.39
 
109
0.00
39
 
225
-2.13
 
109
0.00
7
 
221
-2.04
 
109
0.00
59
 
106
-0.02
 
108
0.09
2,250
 
111
-0.06
 
7
18.18
13
 
121
-0.20
 
49
5.13
41
 
217
-1.96
 
109
0.00
67
 
248
-4.42
 
109
0.00
4
 
200
-1.44
 
15
11.11
40
 
144
-0.47
 
109
0.00
40
 
157
-0.67
 
14
11.27
79
 
250
-5.78
 
37
6.38
100
 
129
-0.27
 
17
10.53
21
 
143
-0.45
 
109
0.00
36
 
86
0.24
 
109
0.00
14
 
207
-1.59
 
39
5.88
720
 
81
0.35
 
109
0.00
13
 
160
-0.70
 
109
0.00
17
 
211
-1.71
 
57
4.00
26
 
78
0.48
 
87
1.79
57
 
175
-1.00
 
109
0.00
28
 
105
-0.01
 
5
25.00
10
 
156
-0.66
 
162
-0.24
1,229
 
116
-0.13
 
100
0.85
237
 
89
0.18
 
97
1.00
202
 
119
-0.15
 
94
1.34
151
 
108
-0.03
 
60
3.57
58
 
91
0.15
 
74
2.44
84
 
148
-0.49
 
106
0.32
953
 
196
-1.36
 
9
16.67
14
 
231
-2.37
 
109
0.00
43
 
87
0.21
 
25
9.21
166
 
117
-0.13
 
19
10.00
11
Lagging Counties
 
137
-0.36
 
183
-2.54
345
 
131
-0.29
 
249
-14.29
18
 
169
-0.91
 
236
-7.65
350
 
118
-0.15
 
173
-1.58
10,351
 
242
-2.88
 
178
-2.04
48
 
173
-0.94
 
206
-4.29
67
 
247
-4.10
 
230
-6.88
2,979
 
152
-0.63
 
214
-4.93
772
 
124
-0.23
 
202
-3.85
50
 
199
-1.41
 
188
-2.78
70
 
191
-1.32
 
231
-7.14
26
 
149
-0.56
 
237
-7.69
60
 
222
-2.06
 
215
-5.26
18
 
138
-0.36
 
198
-3.51
55
 
168
-0.91
 
170
-1.43
69
 
216
-1.95
 
251
-15.38
11
 
240
-2.62
 
231
-7.14
13
 
197
-1.38
 
201
-3.77
51
 
150
-0.59
 
208
-4.42
173
 
182
-1.16
 
225
-6.25
15
 
145
-0.49
 
192
-2.95
25,541
 
219
-2.03
 
194
-3.13
31
 
183
-1.18
 
251
-15.38
11
 
96
0.04
 
165
-0.49
406
 
170
-0.91
 
190
-2.94
66
 
214
-1.79
 
231
-7.14
26
 
162
-0.73
 
231
-7.14
13
 
132
-0.29
 
199
-3.57
27
 
230
-2.37
 
248
-12.50
14
 
229
-2.36
 
215
-5.26
54
 
79
0.37
 
222
-5.56
17
 
90
0.17
 
215
-5.26
18
 
82
0.35
 
213
-4.88
78
 
188
-1.26
 
176
-1.68
117
 
251
-5.80
 
254
-20.00
4
 
109
-0.03
 
193
-2.97
98
 
93
0.12
 
247
-11.11
16
 
158
-0.68
 
166
-0.56
1,765
 
133
-0.32
 
204
-4.14
510
 
165
-0.77
 
199
-3.57
27
 
212
-1.75
 
210
-4.62
124
 
125
-0.24
 
177
-1.69
116
 
84
0.27
 
196
-3.39
57
 
244
-3.21
 
215
-5.26
18
 
226
-2.13
 
240
-8.00
23
 
100
0.03
 
221
-5.41
35
 
181
-1.14
 
225
-6.25
15
 
208
-1.67
 
186
-2.63
74
 
176
-1.03
 
249
-14.29
6
 
236
-2.50
 
215
-5.26
18
 
185
-1.21
 
244
-10.45
60
 
187
-1.26
 
190
-2.94
132
 
203
-1.52
 
243
-10.00
18
 
163
-0.74
 
195
-3.14
5,805
 
235
-2.47
 
253
-18.18
18
 
122
-0.21
 
225
-6.25
60
 
201
-1.50
 
205
-4.17
46
 
194
-1.33
 
245
-10.53
17
 
253
-6.70
 
209
-4.55
21
 
209
-1.68
 
179
-2.17
45
 
215
-1.94
 
174
-1.59
62
 
146
-0.49
 
242
-8.33
11
 
126
-0.24
 
175
-1.59
1,174
 
233
-2.43
 
169
-1.22
81
 
223
-2.06
 
207
-4.35
22
 
140
-0.42
 
228
-6.45
58
 
127
-0.25
 
220
-5.32
89
 
238
-2.60
 
237
-7.69
12
 
179
-1.09
 
180
-2.35
83
 
184
-1.19
 
240
-8.00
23
 
206
-1.58
 
189
-2.82
1,858
 
213
-1.77
 
186
-2.63
37
 
80
0.35
 
168
-1.01
98
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.55
 
-0.45
211,873
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.12
 
-0.61
2,920,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_520100_LSGL
 
   
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HopkinsWashington
HoustonWebb
HowardWharton
HudspethWheeler
HuntWichita
HutchinsonWilbarger
IrionWillacy
JackWilliamson
JacksonWilson
JasperWinkler
Jeff DavisWise
JeffersonWood
Jim HoggYoakum
Jim WellsYoung
JohnsonZapata
JonesZavala
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